Most of us will get COVID-19

As we head into our second week of intensive COVID-19 preparations, we would like to acknowledge the incredible job that our fellow physicians, fellow healthcare workers and other essential service providers have done this past week.
We think it is time to speak bluntly about the impact that COVID-19 may have on the Sunshine Coast. While the data coming in from around the world is incomplete, it does give us an idea of infection rates, the amount of time it takes for the number of infected patients to double, and how each age group will be affected.
Because none of us have immunity to COVID-19, except for the few that have already had it and recovered, almost everyone who is exposed to it will get it. This means that of the approximately 30,000 people on the Coast, 27,000 of us will probably contract COVID-19 at some point.
The vast majority (estimates suggest 80 per cent) will have mild or even no symptoms at all, but a significant number will become more severely ill. Given our population demographics, that could be 5,000 people or more. Of that 5,000, a significant number will require medical care, including hospitalization for oxygen therapy or even life support and transfer to an ICU.
Based on world-wide data, it appears that the number of COVID-19 infected patients doubles approximately every five days if nothing is done. This means that the number of people with COVID-19 will double every five days if we don’t take action now to prevent that. If we assume that we are a week or two behind North Vancouver, the entire Sunshine Coast would be infected in another 57 days (mid-May).
At the same time, again assuming we are a week or two behind North Vancouver, this would mean that we presently have less than 100 people infected with COVID-19 on the Sunshine Coast. If we all act now, we still have a chance to contain COVID-19 and protect our family, friends and neighbours. Order online or by phone.
The reality is that it is very possible that we will lose hundreds of our community members in the coming months. We have the ability to save some of you who become severely ill, but only if we have the resources to do so. If we don’t slow this down, there will be very little that we can do. Please do everything you can to prevent COVID-19 from spreading and help save the lives of those you care about.
Submitted by “The Sunshine Coast COVID Physician Task Force” (Dr. Jennifer Baxter, Dr. Ted Krickan, Dr. Herman Mentz, Dr. Brian Nelson, Dr. Daren Spithoff)